New York
CNN
—
Former President Donald Trump’s social media company is on fire on Wall Street. It’s all about Trump’s perceived chances of retaking the White House.
Up until very recently, Trump Media & Technology Group had been in meltdown mode. Its share price dropped to a record low of $12.15 on September 23, marking a stunning 82% crash from its high.
But the owner of Truth Social is enjoying a massive rebound of about 120% in the three weeks since, more than doubling its share price. It spiked nearly 50% last week alone and is up another 5% on Monday.
It’s a remarkable turnaround, even for a notoriously-volatile stock that has been described as a meme stock on steroids.
Trump Media did not announce a sudden revenue stream or a flashy new product that could explain the move. It didn’t land an endorsement from Wall Street analysts or a major shareholder.
Instead, the turnaround has been fueled by the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump Media has long served as a way for traders to bet on the election.
The race for the White House remains incredibly close and could still go either way. But the betting markets and some recent polls have shifted somewhat in Trump’s favor.
“It’s really simple. People realize that if Trump gets elected, this stock has the potential to do something. And if he doesn’t get elected, it probably goes to zero,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.
Trump is the face of the company. He is the most popular user on Truth Social and his 114.75 million shares makes him the dominant shareholder.
The value of Trump’s stake in the company has spiked by about $1.7 billion since September 23 to just over $3 billion.
Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida who has studied capital markets for four decades, described the 100% spike for Trump Media since September 23 as “stunning.”
“Meme stocks thrive on attention, and in the case of Trump Media, the price also reflects the expectations of who will win the November election,” Ritter said, pointing to betting markets such as PredictIt that show Harris’ margin over Trump has vanished.
Michael Block, chief operating officer and co-founder at AgentSmyth, pointed out there is a lot of bullish options activity expiring November 15, just days after the election.
“This looks like a selective bet on a Trump win on Election Day,” said Block. “Trump’s poll performance is improving and his alliance with Elon Musk is changing the narrative.”
Despite the recent surge, Trump Media’s stock price remains a long way from its March peak of $66. And the value of Trump’s stake is still down by about $2 billion billion from what it was briefly worth in late March.
Beyond the election, Trump Media’s share price has benefited from the fact that the former president has held onto his stock. Many investors speculated that Trump could dump his shares when the lock-up restrictions preventing insiders from selling lapsed. But, so far, Trump has not disclosed any stock sales and he has publicly said he is not selling.
“If Trump was winning in the polls but you were convinced he was going to sell, you certainly wouldn’t see the move we’ve seen,” said Tuttle. “The fact he says he won’t sell – and that he actually hasn’t sold – provides the backdrop for the rally.”
Ritter has long warned that the market is dramatically overvaluing Trump Media. He remains deeply skeptical about Trump Media, arguing the company is worth little more than the cash on its balance sheet because it has not demonstrated it has a business plan to generate profits.
“At today’s stock price of about $25, the stock is overvalued by 1,000% or so,” Ritter said, “suggesting a 90% drop will eventually occur.”
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